If you're like me and can't make it to the WSOP this year even as a spectator, one way to participate is by betting on the final event. I recently received an email from the folks at BoDog.com mentioning their WSOP props (click "Poker" under "Other Events"). I checked them out, and while I am by no means an expert on proposition betting I think a few are worthwhile. There are several places offering these types of bets on the final - I'm not claiming BoDog is the best place to bet or offers the best odds. But they are a book I trust, and I had some winnings there from the NBA playoffs that I wanted to bet with.
At BoDog they are offering two types of bets on the WSOP - bets that an individual will win the final event, and head-to-head or "last longer" bets where you bet on which one of two selected players will be eliminated later.
The individual bets list a player and the odds you will get paid if they win. For example, they have Phil Ivey as the favorite with odds of 12:1 (12/1 as they list it on their page). If you bet $1 on Phil Ivey and he wins, you win $12. Some other examples are Howard Lederer at 15:1, Phil Hellmuth at 20:1, Chris Moneymaker at 30:1, and the big dog Ben Affleck at 700:1. Most of the players are at 60:1 or less, and only Affleck and a few other players are at more than 100:1.
These are real sucker bets in my opinion. The field this year should easily break 1000, and I am expecting it to be 1100+ (some people have mentioned numbers over 2000). No matter how good I think a specific player is, I don't feel that odds like 30:1 or 60:1 compensate for the size of the field. Phil Ivey is a great player, but 12:1 in a field of over 1000? It just doesn't make sense.
The one bet that I really like here is the last one, the field. This is the best bet BoDog is offering, by far. It's an even money bet (1:1) that the winner will be a player that is not on BoDog's list.
They have 50 players listed, and granted there are some great players there, but by taking the field you're getting the other 950+ players. As we've seen the last couple of years it's possible for a player that's a complete unknown to win. And this is an even money bet so there's no vig, you bet $1 to win $1. At only a thousand entries you would be getting 950:50 or 19:1 in terms of the actual number of players. Even if you discount that quite a bit because of the quality of the players on the list, it's still much better odds than the 1:1 payout.
I took this bet, and I like it so much that I am planning on going back later to put more money down.
The head-to-head bets work a little differently. Two players are listed with odds that are like the money lines you've seen if you do any sports betting. For example, Layne Flack at -110 and Gus Hansen at -130. Let me explain how these odds work for those who are not familiar with them.
The standard odds number you usually see with sports betting is -110, where you bet $11 to win $10. That extra dollar that you stand to lose is what's called the vig, it's the book's edge. In the example above you're betting $11 to win $10 that Layne Flack will outlast Gus, or you can bet $13 to win $10 that Gus will last longer. Gus is the favorite, so you have to risk more to win the same amount. The lower the number, the bigger the favorite.
(When I say you bet $11 to win $10, you can bet other amounts, of course, but the payout keeps that same ratio. So, with a $5 bet at -110 you stand to win $4.55.)
Because of the vig, when you bet at -110 you need to win about 52.5% of the time to show a profit. At -130 it's 56.5%. To determine whether a specific odds number is a good bet, you compare what you really think the percent chance is that the event will happen with those odds. You would want to think that Gus has at least a 56.5% chance of outlasting Layne to take him at -130.
These percentages I've been rattling off all come from a table in Stanford Wong's book Sharp Sports Betting, which I recommend to anyone who is interested in sports and prop betting (it's table 1 on p. 76.). If you don't have the book, then as a rough guideline remember that you need to win 52.5% at -110 and about 67% at -200. Most of the odds you see will be in that range.
So, let's look at the head-to-head bets I liked (Layne vs. Gus was actually not one of them). As you'll see, many of them are based on rivalries/matchups from last year's WSOP.
Chris Moneymaker +110, Sam Farha -150. I took Moneymaker. At +110 it's a better tha