No sooner had I finished that post saying I wouldn't be staying up late to wait for news on the final then I read they were down to two players, and just a short bit later Greg "Fossilman" Raymer took out David Williams. Raymer was the big stack coming into the final table and never lost the lead. Both of the final two players qualified through pokerstars.com, this is the second year in a row that a Pokerstars player has won.
Which is why I don't play at Pokerstars, who needs to butt heads with all those good players? :)
Ted
Woohoo, the field wins.
It was getting a bit dicey as "Action" Dan Harrington was one of the last remaining 4 players at the WSOP final table. He was the last player on BoDog's list of 50 that remained, and he's a great, solid player. But he was eliminated a little over an hour ago with 86 all in against 32. The flop was 259 and the turn a 3, Dan had a double belly buster (either a 4 or 7 to make a straight) against two pair, but he did not improve and the river was another 3 giving his opponent a boat.
So, the BoDog field bet wins. I hope you took my advice and took that great bet, I got it at even money for the max of $50. I did well on my last longer bets, too.
Chris Moneymaker +110 over Sam Farha: Push
Amir Vahedi -110 over Sam Farha: Push
Chris "Jesus" Ferguson -120 over Dutch Boyd: Win
Phil Hellmuth -180 over Sam Grizzle: Win
I was curious how the first two would be settled since the players went out the same day, and there was not a clear list of who went out when until the players reached the money. I'm assuming that's why they were settled as pushes, going out on the same day on those early days was considered a tie.
So, I ended up 3-2-0 on my picks, actually better than I expected. I hope that some of you got in on them :)
As happy as I am to win that field bet, though, I'm sorry to see Harrington eliminated. He's a class act and a great player. Not only has he won the final event before, but he finished third last year and fourth this year in the two biggest fields in the history of the tournament. It's an amazing accomplishment, and perhaps after the ESPN coverage airs he will finally be recognized by the general public as one of the great NLHE tournament players in the world.
He's also the last player I'm familiar with, so the outcome isn't of great interest to me right now. I'm sure I'll enjoy watching the play when it airs on ESPN, but I don't think I'll be staying up late tonight trying to get news like I did last year.
Instead I'm watching Celebrity Poker Showdown, absolutely baffled by Jereome Bettis laying down the best had twice to bluffs. I would be pretty hard pressed to lay down trip queens three-handed...
Ted
There are 60 left in the WSOP final on day 5 according to Pokervoice and they will play down to 27. It's a bit easier at this point to talk about who is left then who is out. The carnage was really something yesterday and today, a lot of very well known pros went out.
The last I heard, the former champions left were Doyle Brunson, Chris Ferguson, and Dan Harrington. Julian Gardner was also still in, he finished second two years ago to Varkonyi.
It would be pretty amazing if Doyle could win, I would definitely applaud that. I think my favorite of the folks I named above is Jesus, but the winner may very well be someone I've never heard of.
Ted
It was hard to get information yesterday, apparently the computers at Binion's were down for a long time which caused problems for the sites who are reporting on the final.
Some things that we do know are that the bookies' favorite Phil Ivey went out yesterday, as did Sam Farha, John Juanda, Antonio Esfandiari, and Joe "The Elegance" Beevers of The Hendon Mob (one of my favorite players on Late Night Poker). And yes, Spiderman is gone, too.
Today both of the first two groups combined and everyone who is left is playing.
Ted
Well, it sounds like there was a bit more carnage into the evening. Daniel Negreanu is out, Mike Sexton is out, Scotty Nguyen is out, and an allegely drunk Layne Flack is also out. After seeing that display of Flack's at the first WPT invitational it's not hard to believe, he was pretty hammered there.
Someone else who was apparently drunk last night was Mike Laing, who was cut off according to Pokervoice. But, he finished the day as the chip leader with about 130K in chips, according to the chip count at Pokerpages.
Some people to watch when this group resumes play on Monday are John "World" Hennigan with 74k, David Singer with 57k, Devilfish with 56k, and Ron Rose with 54k. There are plenty of others as well, Erik Seidel is at 34k, and Phil Hellmuth is at 33k after some early tilt problems. My single favorite to win is still Barry Greenstein who is at 23k. Howard Lederer has 13k.
I think I was wrong about James Woods, it sounds like he plays in the second group today, but Laura Prepon of That '70s Show did last longer than Negreanu, Men, Scotty, and Flack. Who would have taken those last longer votes? :) She finished as a very short stack with 2,825.
The second group plays today, Phil Ivey and Annie Duke are in there among many others.
Ted
Chris Moneymaker is out, it sounds like he had some tough hands at the end. He was knocked out by a player who hit his two-outer on the river. There are details of Moneymaker's last few hands and much more at Gutshot. Another site with updates that I failed to mention is Pokervoice.
Besides Moneymaker, other well-known players that are out are Men The Master, TJ Cloutier, and Paul Phillips.
There's no word on Ben Affleck or James Woods, so I'm assuming they are still in. Who would have thought they would have lasted longer then Men, TJ and Phillips? :)
Ted
Ok, so far it looks like the best place to find updates on the final is at Gutshot. They had great coverage last year as well, and they will be doing another broadcast of the final table. It will use downloadable software that will basically look like a table at an online cardroom.
There is also info at Pokerpages, including updates from Dan in their forums, but it is loading slower than shit for me right now.
Ted
According to Dan at pokerpages.com, the WSOP final has been capped at 2400 entries plus 200 alternates, and they had 50 of the alternate seats filled last night. Wow. It seems like the 2600 will happen easily.
So, if you followed my advice and got that field bet at BoDog when it was still at 1:1, here's how that breaks down:
2550 players versus the 50 on BoDog's list works out to odds of 51:1, and for that you're getting a 1:1 payoff. Nothing's a sure thing, of course, but those are pretty damn good odds. About 98% of the players are in the field. I'm feeling pretty good about picking up that $50 :)
I'm worried that a couple of my head-to-head bets may be voided, though. I have yet to see Sam Farha's name on any of the events leading up to the final, it sounds like he is not around. If he doesn't play then the bets I made that Moneymaker and Vahedi will last longer than him will be tossed.
Some notable winners in the events before the final include Ted Forrest with 2 bracelets, Annie Duke, Kathy Liebert, and Barry Greenstein (all winning their first bracelets), Daniel Negreanu and TJ Cloutier.
I'm especially happy to see Greenstein pick up another $300k for his charities in the deuce to seven lowball event. It seems it would be pretty easy to give away all your tournament winnings if you had the kind of money he does, but you don't see anyone else doing it. The man is also on a roll - if I had to pick a single player to be my favorite in the final, it would be him.
Ted
Today was the last day of the Barclaycard English Premier League season, and Arsenal were presented the championship trophy. They achieved the incredible feat of remaining undefeated for the entire season, the first time it's been done since the EPL was formed. (The last time a team went undefeated in the English top division was the 1898-1899 season.) Arsenal beat Leicester City 2-1 after falling behind early 0-1. Thierry Henry easily scored on a penalty in the 47th minute to tie the match, and Captain Patrick Vieira scored the winner in the 66th off a beautiful ball from Dennis Bergkamp. The Gunners finished 26-12-0, at the top of the table with 90 points, 11 points ahead of second place Chelsea.
The amazing Henry lead the league with 30 goals (Harry Shearer was second with 22), and was voted the player of the year by both the players and the press. At one point recently he scored a hat trick in one match and then four goals in another the following week. Besides his scoring he also contributed 9 assists, tied for 6th in the league.
Henry came in second in the voting for the 2003 FIFA international player of the year to Zinedine Zidane, his fellow French international player, and I expect Henry to win the award for 2004. Look out for that French side in the UEFA Euro 2004 tournament this summer, they are in Group B with England, Croatia, and Switzerland. The lineup for France also includes Arsenal players Vieira and Robert Pires (12th in the EPL with 14 goals).
In some other big EPL news, American Tim Howard was named the goalkeeper of the year in the league for his work in goal for Manchester United, despite being benched by Sir Alex for a few weeks in the latter part of the season. It's quite an accomplishment, but Howard may still be down as low as third on the depth chart for the US national team as they enter World Cup 2006 qualifying, behind keepers Kasey Keller and Brad Friedel. Expect Howard to be the man on goal of the future, though, as he gains more experience against world-class players in the EPL.
Ted
Even after is became clear that the Spurs would not cover at -5, I was still pulling for them to win. After that incredible shot of Duncan's, it seemed like a done deal. Damn you Fisher.
My hot streak had to end sometime, I'm sure :) I did get a bet down on the Lakers at halftime for a bit of a save, but the odds had shifted so much that it didn't help a lot.
I went 1-1 last night taking the dogs on both games, but instead of that being a small loss (due to the vig) it was a small profit. I found both bets at +104 at TradebetX. Betting exchanges are cool.
I was a bit surprised to see the Nets win outright in Detroit. It will be interesting to see what happens if they make the finals in the East. Everyone has focused on Indiana and Detroit as the teams to watch, but certainly no one has had as much success in the East as the Nets the last few years. It may be a mistake to count them out.
Today for me it will be the Heat at +11.5. The last game in Indiana I took the Pacers at -11.5, and they let a 20 point lead dribble down to 11 in the last few minutes. Grrr. Also, I think the Heat may have convinced themselves that this is still a series.
I think it will be tough to stay away from the Lakers at -4.5. It's certainly possible for the Spurs to win this one, LA is notorius for playing down to the level of their opponents and lacking a killer instinct at times. I would not be shocked to see the series still go to 7. But, the Spurs have not shot well lately, especially on the road, and unless guys like Hedo and Bowen and Parker can step up and hit outside shots they are doomed. The Lakers will double Duncan all day if that happens.
And betting the Lakers helps me on a personal level. I hate them soooo much, but it's a bit less painful when they win and I win some money. Now, if they win but don't cover, my neighbors can expect to hear the sounds of shouting and shit breaking.
I've promised that whichever team can knock LA out this year will be my new favorite team. It would be cool if it's the Spurs, but I could deal with becoming a Twolves or Pacers or Nets fan, too :)
Ted
I am 7 out of my last 8 NBA playoff picks, 8 of the last 10. Ok, I lost 4 in a row right before that, but I'm still smokin :) I'm only batting about .500 overall, but I've won all but one of the games I felt strongly enough about to bet more than my standard bet size.
Tonight I had the Heat at +4.5 and the Kings at -5.5. I'm really liking the Spurs tomorrow, the lines I have seen so far have them at -5. I think they'll win tomorrow (and hopefully cover), and that they have a good chance to steal game 6 in LA Saturday.
It's going to be interesting to see the lines for the Nets/Pistons and Kings/Twolves on Friday, I'm not sure yet where I would want to go on those.
Ted
I have to say, this WPT Aruba episode was my least favorite in a while. At least they did away with the amatuers vs. pros format of last year. I didn't think the play was that interesting, but boy did Erick Lindgren catch some cards. Amazing.
Yes, I'm jealous :)
The funniest part was the ongoing story about the couple that might get married. I thought the fiancee waiting on the side seemed familiar - it turns out she is Tonya from Big Brother 3, who apparently was very fond of prancing around in the buff for the video feeds. I'm sure they'll be very happy :)
Ted
I mentioned my article about the BoDog.com WSOP props on rec.gambling.poker. (If you haven't read it that article is below, you might want to check it out first.) There were some interesting comments. Several people pointed out that the max bet is $50, so you can't get more than that down on that great field bet I mentioned. One person mentioned that he thought that bet was just to get people to sign up, and that the other odds were really bad.
I agree that those other bets on individuals are really bad, I had already pointed that out. I do still like that field bet and some of the head-to-heads, though. If the field bet is just to get people to sign up, that's OK with me too, I'll take the excellent shot at an easy $50 :) If you don't have an account at BoDog, I'd say consider it an extra sign-up bonus.
At the same time, I do think it's a good idea to shop around. A lot of people have mentioned the good odds at Pinnacle, and that the limits are higher. I don't like the odds on their field bet, but some of the head-to-heads are better than BoDog's odds. They have Hellmuth at -170 vs Grizzle, and Moneymaker at +120 vs. Farha, both of those are slightly better.
Their individual bets also have lines that are much more realistic considering the size of the field. Most of the players are at least 300:1, and some of the stronger favorites like Howard Lederer and Erik Seidel are at about 200:1. The odds numbers they show are in that money line-like format, but they are easy to convert to a normal odds ratio if that helps you put them into perspective. You just stip off the last two zeros. For instance, Gus Hansen is at +16000, which translates to 160:1, and Ben Affleck's +80000 is 800:1.
Another site I bet at sometimes is Bet365, and they have an interesting twist on the individual bets. Their individual bets are not to win but to make the final table (the last 9).
So, again, I definitely recommend shopping around if you want to find the best bet, but I would get my $50 down on that field bet at BoDog, unless you're one of those people that have so much money you can't use an extra $50. I'm certainly not :)
Ted
If you're like me and can't make it to the WSOP this year even as a spectator, one way to participate is by betting on the final event. I recently received an email from the folks at BoDog.com mentioning their WSOP props (click "Poker" under "Other Events"). I checked them out, and while I am by no means an expert on proposition betting I think a few are worthwhile. There are several places offering these types of bets on the final - I'm not claiming BoDog is the best place to bet or offers the best odds. But they are a book I trust, and I had some winnings there from the NBA playoffs that I wanted to bet with.
At BoDog they are offering two types of bets on the WSOP - bets that an individual will win the final event, and head-to-head or "last longer" bets where you bet on which one of two selected players will be eliminated later.
The individual bets list a player and the odds you will get paid if they win. For example, they have Phil Ivey as the favorite with odds of 12:1 (12/1 as they list it on their page). If you bet $1 on Phil Ivey and he wins, you win $12. Some other examples are Howard Lederer at 15:1, Phil Hellmuth at 20:1, Chris Moneymaker at 30:1, and the big dog Ben Affleck at 700:1. Most of the players are at 60:1 or less, and only Affleck and a few other players are at more than 100:1.
These are real sucker bets in my opinion. The field this year should easily break 1000, and I am expecting it to be 1100+ (some people have mentioned numbers over 2000). No matter how good I think a specific player is, I don't feel that odds like 30:1 or 60:1 compensate for the size of the field. Phil Ivey is a great player, but 12:1 in a field of over 1000? It just doesn't make sense.
The one bet that I really like here is the last one, the field. This is the best bet BoDog is offering, by far. It's an even money bet (1:1) that the winner will be a player that is not on BoDog's list.
They have 50 players listed, and granted there are some great players there, but by taking the field you're getting the other 950+ players. As we've seen the last couple of years it's possible for a player that's a complete unknown to win. And this is an even money bet so there's no vig, you bet $1 to win $1. At only a thousand entries you would be getting 950:50 or 19:1 in terms of the actual number of players. Even if you discount that quite a bit because of the quality of the players on the list, it's still much better odds than the 1:1 payout.
I took this bet, and I like it so much that I am planning on going back later to put more money down.
The head-to-head bets work a little differently. Two players are listed with odds that are like the money lines you've seen if you do any sports betting. For example, Layne Flack at -110 and Gus Hansen at -130. Let me explain how these odds work for those who are not familiar with them.
The standard odds number you usually see with sports betting is -110, where you bet $11 to win $10. That extra dollar that you stand to lose is what's called the vig, it's the book's edge. In the example above you're betting $11 to win $10 that Layne Flack will outlast Gus, or you can bet $13 to win $10 that Gus will last longer. Gus is the favorite, so you have to risk more to win the same amount. The lower the number, the bigger the favorite.
(When I say you bet $11 to win $10, you can bet other amounts, of course, but the payout keeps that same ratio. So, with a $5 bet at -110 you stand to win $4.55.)
Because of the vig, when you bet at -110 you need to win about 52.5% of the time to show a profit. At -130 it's 56.5%. To determine whether a specific odds number is a good bet, you compare what you really think the percent chance is that the event will happen with those odds. You would want to think that Gus has at least a 56.5% chance of outlasting Layne to take him at -130.
These percentages I've been rattling off all come from a table in Stanford Wong's book Sharp Sports Betting, which I recommend to anyone who is interested in sports and prop betting (it's table 1 on p. 76.). If you don't have the book, then as a rough guideline remember that you need to win 52.5% at -110 and about 67% at -200. Most of the odds you see will be in that range.
So, let's look at the head-to-head bets I liked (Layne vs. Gus was actually not one of them). As you'll see, many of them are based on rivalries/matchups from last year's WSOP.
Chris Moneymaker +110, Sam Farha -150. I took Moneymaker. At +110 it's a better than even money bet, it only has to win about 48% of the time to show a profit. Sammy is better known for his skill at Omaha cash games than NLHE. Chris came out of nowhere to win the title last year, but he's made a WPT final table since then, finishing second at the Shooting Stars and winning $200k. I don't think he'll repeat as the champion, but I like his chances of outlasting Sammy.
Amir Vahedi -110, Sam Farha -130. I'm betting against Sammy once again, I took Amir. Amir has had much more success at NLHE tournaments, and I feel he has a better chance to outlast Sammy than the 52.5% required to show a profit at -110.
Chris "Jesus" Ferguson -120, Dutch Boyd -120. The odds have actually moved on this one since I placed my bet, I got Chris at -115. At those odds I needed him to have a 53.5% chance to last longer to show a profit here. At -120 it's a little worse, you'd need to feel he had a 54.5% chance or lasting longer. I still like the bet at -120, Chris is a player who has a lot more tournament experience.
(If you want to know how a book makes money, that last example is a great one. At this point you bet $12 to win $10 on either player. The house always wins.)
Phil Hellmuth -180, Sam Grizzle +140. I took Phil, even though -180 is a pretty big number. You're betting $18 to win $10 at that rate, and you need to win over 64% of the time to show a profit. I do feel that Phil has a better than 64% chance of outlasting Sam, though. The fact that Phil shows up late on the first day is just an added bonus :)
So, those are a few of the bets I liked. If you're looking to wager on the WSOP final, you might check out the others at BoDog and also at some other sportsbooks. It's a good idea to shop around - you can sometimes find odds that are quite different, especially on props. I haven't seen a better bet for this year's WSOP than the one at BoDog for the field, though.
Ted