I recently ran into a couple of hands in a row where the miracle cards hit. I've written an article about them, and how the odds in a hand relate to actual results.
It's called Miracle Cards and Statistics and there's a link to it in the Articles section in the upper right (or click here).
It probably won't be news to people who understand basic statistics, but it might be of help to those of you who get steamed after losing a hand where you were the favorite.
Ted
I saw a post yesterday on rec.gambling.poker asking about a hand that I think raises some interesting questions, interesting enough to repeat here. The action went like this:
There are 7 players at the table in a NLHE tourney. The big blind of 200 is posted (no small blind). A couple of players fold. Player A, who has about 6600 chips, raises to 500. Player B has about 7600 and has been dealt Kc Ks, he re-raises to 1700. Player A calls.
The flop comes Js Ts 5h. Player A checks. Player B moves in for 5900. Player A calls, and turns over Ac Ah. Another Ace hits on the turn and Player A doubles up.
Player B wrote the post to RGP asking if he had played the hand poorly or was unlucky. Later in the thread he explained that he moved in on the flop because he wanted to, "put [his opponent] to a decision if he had a draw.... I wanted him to put in all his chips to draw out on me."
Here's what I wrote:
"The reality is that with KK against AA the chips will often all go in preflop or on the flop, one way or another. So in that sense, running into AA when you have KK can be considered unlucky. But you didn't know the other player had AA at the time, so the fact that we can look back on it and say it was almost inevitable for the chips to go in is not the same thing as saying you made the best play. We don't want to be results oriented.
"People often move in on the flop with an overpair like that. If I'm the other player holding AA, then KK and QQ are pretty likely hands to put you on. This is one of those situations where you may only get a call if you're beaten. Even someone with AJ has to be worried about a lot of hands that have them crushed when you move in, like AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 55 and JT. It's going to be hard for them to call you with TPTK, unless they think you're a pretty bad player (or maybe they are pretty bad), or that you're bluffing or semibluffing. But someone with a hand that has you beat may very well call.
"You mentioned wanting to make the player commit all their chips if they are on a draw -- a good player will not be likely do that unless they are getting the right price. By getting all in on the flop, they know they will see both the turn and the river. If they are on a flush draw and are getting the 2:1 or better from the pot that they need to call, they will. If not, they'll fold.
"If they don't know that they will see both cards, then they are a 4:1 dog to hit on the turn, and then they have to worry about facing another bet on the river.
"Yes, you want to give draws the wrong price, but you don't have to move in to do that. With 3600 in the pot, you do not need to bet 5900 to give them the wrong price. Even a bet of half the pot only offers them 3:1 to call, which is not the 4:1 they need to hit on the next card. Then you can put even more pressure on them on the turn, when they only have one more chance to hit.
"Say you bet 1800 and then they checkraise you. At that point you have 4100 left and he has a thousand less. You asked Grouchy [another person in the thread] if he could get away from the hand there on the flop. It may be tough to do that with almost half your stack in the middle, but at least you have the opportunity to make that extra decision. Then you can evaluate the other player and what you've seen of their play, and what's happened in the hand so far.
"Poker is about making decisions, and the better information you have, the better decisions you can make. Just pushing all of your chips into the middle might actually be a good move for someone who is up against a better player and is afraid they'll get outplayed postflop, but in most situations you'd like to be pretty sure you have the best hand when you get your chips in the middle (unless you're moving in on a steal or semibluff).
"Without knowing more about the other player, if someone checkraises me there on the flop after I've already re-raised them preflop, I think there's a good chance I'm beat. That's when what you know about the other player comes into play, like how likely they would be to make that play with TPTK, or on a bluff. I think there are some situations where I could make that laydown, because hands like AA and JJ and TT are almost 85% to win."
There's an idea that some players seem to have that they would really like to get players who are on draws to fold. I think there are specific tournament situations where that might be desireable, but in general I'd like them to call but at the wrong price.
If I'm up against a flush draw on that flop, the other player is a 4:1 dog to make it on the turn. If I make a bet of say 60% of the pot on the flop and they call, then I can apply even more pressure on the turn if they miss. At that point they are a big dog to make the hand by the river, and they will now face a bigger bet and a chance to make a bigger mistake.
Ted